Where Has the Excitement Gone? This Drop of the Goal Scoring

Football match action
The Wolves squad have scored a decrease of 10 goals from open-play situations compared to at this stage the previous campaign.

A major talking point of the EPL this campaign has been the reduction of scoring in open play and how clubs have been scoring increasingly from set-pieces instead.

When we compare scoring methods to the initial 11 matches the prior season, there have been 39 fewer scored in open play and 26 more from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, resulting in 13 less in total.

Examining the broader view, the number of shots sides are producing have seen a remarkable 370 fewer in open play than at this stage last time out.

Even with the big increase in set-piece goals, records show just two more shots created from these situations outside of penalties, demonstrating the proficiency sides are at devising strategies to net from dead-ball chances.

Goal Statistics Show a Story

The 301 goals scored in 110 matches to date calculates at 2.74 goals per game, if maintained for the entire campaign could be the lowest for half a decade, from five seasons ago (2.69 average).

However, only 196 goals scored in open-play averages out 1.78 each match and is on course to be the smallest for 16 seasons, back in 2009-10 (1.76 per game).

The 2009-10 season also marks the sole English top-flight season to experience scoring more frequently from non-penalty set-pieces than this season's rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 average).

What Clubs Account for This Change?

When it comes to goals scored from open-play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have recorded the most significant decline, netting just four in 11 matches, a reduction of 10 than at this stage last season.

Excluding Wolves, England's top division's decline in goals from open play is very much a trend among London clubs, with half of the capital's seven sides netting five or more fewer goals from open-play than last season.

To be fair, that's largely down to their scoring many scores at the start of the previous campaign instead of their genuine struggle to score in open play the current term.

Meanwhile Manchester City have experienced the largest rise, with all but one of their 23 goals so far arriving in open-play.

Set-Play Proficiency

We've compared newly promoted sides with the relegated sides they replaced. Play-off winners the Black Cats have scored an additional three scores in open-play than the Saints achieved in their opening 11 matches en route to relegation the previous campaign.

When it comes to goals scored from set-pieces (aside from spot-kicks), Arsenal and the Blues have seen the most significant jump, with both sides replacing the five fewer scores that they've scored in open play with an equal amount from set-pieces.

Man United have scored two times more goals from set-plays as they achieved in the 11 games last season ahead of the manager took over, while the Black Cats additionally have been more effective at netting than the club they replaced they replaced.

City seem unaware of the message about netting additional goals from set-plays, since they've netted three fewer than last season, similar to Nottingham Forest, even if this could be because of the altered approach they're working to install.

League-Wide Trends

Six teams – Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, the Magpies, Tottenham and the Hammers – have been this term's primary examples by netting less goals from open play and additional from set-plays, while Manchester City are the only side to go against the grain up to now by doing the contrary.

It will be fascinating to observe if sides persist to place such emphasis on set-pieces as the campaign progresses or if they rediscover their general attacking flair and commence netting more goals in open-play also.

Tyler Smith
Tyler Smith

A gaming technology analyst with over a decade of experience in slot machine design and industry regulation, passionate about innovation.