Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
